What’s happening?
Earlier this month, Bendigo Bank released its 2025 Mid‑Year Australian Agriculture Outlook report. It sets out supply, demand and price outlooks for major commodities in the second half of 2025.
The report highlights challenging seasonal conditions and a volatile global trade setting. Neil Burgess, Bendigo Bank Senior Manager Industry Affairs, said “Growing uncertainty in the global trade environment, driven by tariff announcements from the US and China is leading to increased volatility in markets. The largest impacts of the trade conflict and the sweeping US tariffs on Australian agriculture at this stage are generally expected to be through downstream effects, rather than directly from the 10 per cent tariff imposed by the US on Australia.”
Why it matters
Approximately two-thirds of Australia’s agricultural products are exported. Queensland relies on strong export markets for cattle, macadamias and grain. “The recent apparent de‑escalation in trade tensions between the US and China is easing concerns slightly, but any sustained agreement appears to be a long way off, which may improve the chances of a trade deal being struck between Australia and the EU, with the added potential for significant opportunities, particularly for both Australian beef and lamb exports,” Mr Burgess said.
Local Impact
Queensland is showing solid performance in several key areas:
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Fruit yields, including citrus, avocados and bananas, are above average. More second‑grade produce is moving through wholesale markets.
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Vegetable supply from Queensland and northern New South Wales is lifting through July after a cold start to winter slowed growth.
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Bundaberg macadamia orchards are delivering good yields as many trees reach five years old, though some southern producers were hit by bad weather. Export prices have stayed well above 2024 and are expected to remain high on strong Chinese demand.
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Winter wheat production is forecast at around 2.1 million tonnes, in line with the five‑year average but down 9 per cent year on year. Prices are likely to sit below southern market levels.
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Cattle prices are expected to stay strong through the second half of 2025, with processors buying to meet international demand. Rainfall outlooks are positive, and some producers may hold stock to use pasture.
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Dairy is recovering after 2024 challenges. Wet conditions affected animal health and feed quality. Some producers have left, others have reinvested, but herd numbers remain lower.
By the numbers
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Winter wheat production in Queensland is tipped at 2.1 million tonnes, down 9 per cent year on year.
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Macadamia export prices in early 2025 have stayed well above the 2024 season.
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The Bureau of Meteorology predicts an above average chance of median rainfall across much of Queensland in the next three months.
Zoom In
“Demand for beef is set to remain firm as the US reduction in supply continues to favour Australian producers. The cattle industry is set for a big second half of 2025 with current strong export demand likely to be sustained and prices also likely to remain strong, trending marginally higher in the back half of the year,” Mr Burgess said. Cropping forecasts show winter production down 9 per cent to 54.5 million tonnes, but a late break in southern regions has added upside potential. Export demand is very strong for canola, barley and chickpeas. “Lamb export volumes are expected to be lower as supply comes under pressure, with demand from Australia’s key markets remaining strong, particularly from the US, while demand from China is also expected to remain elevated for both lamb and mutton,” Mr Burgess said.
Zoom Out
Nationally the outlook is mixed. Beef and horticulture show strength. Cropping is steady with some upside, while dairy continues to contract in some areas. Wool and sheep sectors are holding steady but face production limits. Victoria and South Australia have faced dry conditions. Western Australia is recovering from past herd reductions and the phase out of live sheep exports is changing future plans. Tasmania faces higher irrigation costs due to low water storage levels.
What to look for next
Seasonal conditions in Queensland must be watched over the next three months. Rainfall is expected to affect restocking and crop results. Trade talks with the EU may bring new export chances, and changes in the US and China will likely keep affecting demand and prices.
