What’s happening?
Australia’s key agricultural sectors are experiencing mixed but mostly positive conditions, according to Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Insights. Cattle, lamb, and wool prices are rising on the back of strong export demand and tight supply, while cropping and horticulture face pricing and competition pressures despite seasonal boosts. Dairy markets are competitive as processors vie for supply, and climate policy is moving towards new 2035 targets under the Paris Agreement.
Why it matters
These shifts impact export income, domestic food prices, and the confidence of rural producers. Strong livestock markets are helping offset pressures in cropping, while ongoing export demand from the US, China, and South Korea highlights Australia’s position in global food supply. Seasonal rainfall is lifting confidence, but global market forces and weather remain critical watchpoints.
Local impact
Favourable weather across most regions is improving pasture growth and crop potential, supporting higher livestock prices and lifting confidence in the sheep and cattle sectors. In contrast, grain producers in Victoria and South Australia are cautiously optimistic after late July rain, while horticulture exporters are adapting to tariff and competition pressures.
By the numbers
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43,000 tonnes of Australian beef went to the US in July, up 22% month-on-month and a new record.
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1,230 c/kg – the National Trade Lamb Indicator’s record level, 61.4% above the five-year average.
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$10/Kg MS – reported private farmgate milk price offers as processors scramble to secure supply.
Zoom in
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Cattle: July saw cattle prices climb above the five-year average, supported by strong US demand and export volumes nearing 150,500 tonnes. Exports to China rose 13% month-on-month and 90% year-on-year.
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Cropping: Wheat prices eased nearly 7% on global harvest pressure, though barley remains strong on feedlot demand. Canola prices are near decile 8, with possible export growth to China.
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Dairy: Competition for supply is high, with some private offers exceeding $10/Kg MS. Three bidders remain in the race for Fonterra’s Australian food and consumer business.
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Horticulture: Australian onion exports are at their lowest since 2017. Brown onion prices average $1.40/kg, 9% higher year-on-year, with red onions up 28%.
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Sheep: Tight supply is driving lamb and mutton prices to records. July slaughter was down 16.3% on last year. Prices may steady in August before easing with new season supply.
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Wool: Prices rose in the first four weeks of the 2025/26 season, with the AWEX EMI at 1,239 c/kg – the highest since week 41 of 2024/25.
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Climate and carbon: Australia’s emissions are 28.2% below 2005 levels, tracking towards the 43% reduction target for 2030. The Climate Change Authority will soon recommend a 2035 target, likely between 65-75%.
Zoom out
Australia’s agriculture sector continues to be shaped by export market dynamics, seasonal conditions, and trade competition. Livestock sectors are benefiting from strong global demand, particularly from the US and China, while cropping faces international price pressure. Dairy’s competitive buying environment is creating opportunities for producers, and climate policy will soon set new long-term benchmarks that could influence future farming practices.
What to look for next?
Industry will be watching how August cattle and lamb prices track, whether grain markets stabilise heading into spring, and the Climate Change Authority’s official 2035 emissions target recommendation in the coming weeks. Export demand trends from key partners like the US, China, and South Korea will also be closely monitored.
